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Originally Posted by Kui
Well that one example he's giving is gambling. Actually the whole concept of investing is gambling, for it involves financial risk.
I havent looked at the curent asking price for the Hillary contract meesh. At the previous 0.35, I'll asssume the asking price was $3.50 per contract/share. You've got to confirm this with me Meesh. Anyway what is the asking price now?
In any case, if you decide to buy the Hillary option, be sure to cut the risk by making a hedge on another candidate be it a fellow dem or against a gop candidate who might actually win. In fact... hedge it with the plain DEM to win 2008 option. You see Hillary might not even run. If her value has gone up significantly, I believe too many are over-speculating that investment with so many uncertainties coming up in the near future.
I have other questions regarding intrade.com meesh. Can I sell my contract before the specified event(Party Convention or General Election Day) to an open buyer on imtrade if the price is right? Are we using a binary 0-100 format where the specified event results at 100 and every other circumstance ends at 0(zero)? What is the payout per contract if your future ends up being correct?
You see... I'm not too sure if your payout is fixed at a certain rate per share or if the value of the contract(s) is your payout. Seems like a sucker bet to buy $50. per one(1) future contract if the payout is only $10 per one(1)share(if the event comes i.e. Hillary winning). You would be paying $5 to win $1 if what I'm guessin at is correct. You got let me know.
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I think right now that contract is at about .50 meaning 50% probability of the event.
I forgot what the numbers are, basically it is value from 0 to 1, 0 meaning it doesnt occur, 1 - otherwise. Payouts will be either 0 or 1. I am too sleepy, gotta hit the bed.
Later, guys)))