The CL draw

Originally Posted by Kui

I hope this doesnt happen with Milan. I'm hoping for a different result than Thermopylae. A win and a great story to tell is what I hope.
Isnt a movie coming out about this??? I could have sworn I saw this on the tv some days ago. I hear its historically inaccurate this movie is.

yeah, the "300" movie is based on this historical moment ... don't know how accurate it is as I haven't seen it or read anything about it's plot, but I hear it's a really impressive movie - lot's of special effects, I am guessing - and people seem to draw parallels between this movie and the Matrix (which btw I didn't like )

Originally Posted by Stezagud

before the game is one thing zlat, before the tournament is another, surely that was clear from the 2006 prediction? he would hardly have said Milan or Juve would win if he already knew it was a Barca - Arsenal final

not sure what you mean as I don't know the story behind those predictions of his - did he predict Milan-Pool before the start of the tournament or what?

my point however was mostly on the outcome of the game - did he, at HT and 3-0 for Milan and Milan killing Pool all over the field, still maintained that Pool will win it?

Originally Posted by Vadim

We're playing the first leg at home Deportivo and Barca flashing before my eyes

I have always seen these as supposed "advantages"
if we are better and deserve to go thru, this should and will not matter.

in the end of the day, both teams will have a home and away game to play with the same rules being in force for both teams ... if we fail to take advantage of our home game, fail to keep them from scoring an way goal, or we fail to score in Munich, then we simply have no place in the SF and should blame ourselves for that, not the draw or whatnot as blaming those would be simply looking for excuses ... that's how I see it at least.

I agree with what you said, but look at our history under Carlo.

2003, against Ajax, we win with the 2nd leg at home.

2004, we win in the Round of 16 against Sparta Prague 4-1 with the 2nd leg at home, then the disaster at Deportivo.

2005, Man U once again, 2nd leg at home, against PSV in the semis nearly a disaster.

2006, Bayern and Lyon, 2nd leg at home, Barca, 1st leg at home.

We obviously have more success playing the return leg at the San Siro, Nothing is decided yet, but I would feel more comfortable playing the first leg in Munich.

not sure what you mean as I don't know the story behind those predictions of his - did he predict Milan-Pool before the start of the tournament or what?

yeah supposedly, but as Tony said his (wrong) prediction of an all Italian final the year after surely suggests he isnt biased against Italy anyway!

my point however was mostly on the outcome of the game - did he, at HT and 3-0 for Milan and Milan killing Pool all over the field, still maintained that Pool will win it?

tbh i dont remember, its not a game i've watched since seeing it live, for obvious reasons

I dont see that that is particularly fair though, i dont think anyone in the world predicted that game as a single event. Liverpool went in with a supposedly rock solid defence only for it to be blown apart, Milan went in the sure winners at half time and ended up losing. The thinking amongst the gambling community generally was a low scoring Milan win iirc.

Originally Posted by zlatanov

I have always seen these as supposed "advantages"
if we are better and deserve to go thru, this should and will not matter.

in the end of the day, both teams will have a home and away game to play with the same rules being in force for both teams ... if we fail to take advantage of our home game, fail to keep them from scoring an way goal, or we fail to score in Munich, then we simply have no place in the SF and should blame ourselves for that, not the draw or whatnot as blaming those would be simply looking for excuses ... that's how I see it at least.

I agree and i think playing away on the 2nd leg has a certain advantage. we just need a 1-0 in the first leg at home and it will put us in a very good position to reach the semis. Their ground is familiar to our players and they should still remember who gave them their first defeat on their ground.

Drawing bayern is just great, their form is not good this season but they are still a big name and Milan players should be more concentrated when playing against big names.

i hope we go pass bayern, meet man u in the next round. i have a good feeling about this CL.

Sigh .. under the Ancelotti era the only game play-off game we won while playing away in the 2nd leg is against PSV and we know how lucky we were.. (also we beat Inter but I wont consider it away).. we also lost to Barca last year..

hmm bayern are really tough.. i think milan will need to be at its best.. its also disappointing to see Roma and Milan both being dealt with away games for the 2nd leg..

Originally Posted by Vadim

I agree with what you said, but look at our history under Carlo.

2003, against Ajax, we win with the 2nd leg at home.

2004, we win in the Round of 16 against Sparta Prague 4-1 with the 2nd leg at home, then the disaster at Deportivo.

2005, Man U once again, 2nd leg at home, against PSV in the semis nearly a disaster.

2006, Bayern and Lyon, 2nd leg at home, Barca, 1st leg at home.

We obviously have more success playing the return leg at the San Siro, Nothing is decided yet, but I would feel more comfortable playing the first leg in Munich.

other than the disaster at depor, i don't see any reason to fear playing away in the 2nd leg, don't forget barca got lucky with an incorrectly disallowed shevchenko goal last year.

Originally Posted by Vadim

I agree with what you said, but look at our history under Carlo.

2003, against Ajax, we win with the 2nd leg at home.

2004, we win in the Round of 16 against Sparta Prague 4-1 with the 2nd leg at home, then the disaster at Deportivo.

2005, Man U once again, 2nd leg at home, against PSV in the semis nearly a disaster.

2006, Bayern and Lyon, 2nd leg at home, Barca, 1st leg at home.

We obviously have more success playing the return leg at the San Siro, Nothing is decided yet, but I would feel more comfortable playing the first leg in Munich.

I see your point but statistics are an elusive "adviser" because they are simply figures and do not consider the utmost important fact that what happens in that second game is directly influenced by what had happened in the first one or other such circumstances, which are unique for that particular moment in time.

For instance, the game at Depor and that 4-0 loss was not the result of Milan playing away, it was the result of Milan having won 4-1 in the first game and having that false sense of security, which deprived the players from being alert, determined and focused i.e. we beat ourselves more than Depor beat us - carlo admitted that he had increased the training load of the players thinking that we had already secured qualification and this is another reason why we looked so tired and unable to score even one single goal, or create clear chances, in Spain.

Similarly that game vs PSV in Eindhoven - the team was going thru a very rough patch in exactly that moment, the players were tired and playing at not more than 70% of their abilities ... and it wasn't just PSv that created problems for us but even some of the smaller teams in Serie A too - we lost in Siena, for instance - and we also lost to Juve at the SS, and in general looked shaky in all our games.
If our players were fresh and in top shape, I honestly doubt that we would have needed Ambro to score that goal in order to secure qualification for us.

Vs Barca - we let them score an away goal and Milan missed 3-4 clear chances at the SS, that's where we lost the game, not at the Nou Camp or at the draw ... and if we looked shaky at the Nou camp by allowing Barca create some good chances (for Etoo mostly) it was also because, having the disadvantage of having conceded an away goal, we had to readjust our tactics and open up at the back ... not to mention that we had to play a 39 yo Billy against one of the most dynamic front lines in Europe comprised of Etoo, Dinho, and Giuly.

As for all the other times when we comfortably, or not as comfortably, advanced when the home game was second, statistic do not account for the more than realistic assumption that we would have qualified even if we had to play the second game away and not at home.

the only advantage that I can think of having the second game at home is that in that second game you will have a chance of making up for any possible mistakes committed in the first one ... and it should be easier, at least on paper, to do so in front of a home crowd.
All in all, however, the one thing to do to make sure we'll go into the SFs is limit the number of those mistakes and take care of our own matters - don't allow away goals at the San Siro and manage to score an away goal or score enough goals at home - where we play that second game is of no particular importance at all.

Actually, I personally prefer to play the final, second game away because away goals count for two in those cases and for that same reason I am more nervous when a strong team comes to the SS than seeing Milan play away. Also, Milan players are experienced enough to stay even more focused in an away game and not let the home crowd get on their nerves.

Originally Posted by zlatanov

not sure what you mean as I don't know the story behind those predictions of his - did he predict Milan-Pool before the start of the tournament or what?

I guess so !
I never read his past predictions, i was just told that he made those predictions in 2005 and 2006.

But logically, if he's predicting a Bayern-Chelsea final now, when we still have 8 teams , and he's predicting Chelsea to win it, then he probably did the same in last 2 years.
I guess he predicted Milan-Pool final in 2005 before the 1/4's were played and he predicted Milan-Juve final in 2006 also before the 1/4's were played.

Anyway, it's not important at all. He might have had a lucky guess back in 2005. There are 1000's of football experts out there and if you ask each one of them to predict who's gonna win it, or who's gonna play in the final or who's gonna be a semifinalist , i'm sure we'll get many different opinions, but whoever'll guess it right i bet luck will be the main factor for his correct prediction.
It's the Champions League and we have 8 very strong teams.
We can make 8 different predictions on who's gonna win it and all 8 predictions will be logical.
We can make exactly 16 different predictions on who's gonna play in the final, and again all of them will be logical , but only one will be correct.
It's CL - logic, even knowledge, won't help much here !

Originally Posted by Tony29.

........
Anyway, it's not important at all. He might have had a lucky guess back in 2005. There are 1000's of football experts out there and if you ask each one of them to predict who's gonna win it, or who's gonna play in the final or who's gonna be a semifinalist , i'm sure we'll get many different opinions, but whoever'll guess it right i bet luck will be the main factor for his correct prediction.
It's the Champions League and we have 8 very strong teams.
We can make 8 different predictions on who's gonna win it and all 8 predictions will be logical.
We can make exactly 16 different predictions on who's gonna play in the final, and again all of them will be logical , but only one will be correct.
It's CL - logic, even knowledge, won't help much here !

now that's something I can relate to

we got bayern like last year , we have destroyed them with 5-2 .

Clive Tyldesley?

who?

ahhhhh... another sphInter fan, ok ,ok, ok > [Chorus]: > > > fanculo, alè!

I do believe in the . . . Sun

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2...110370,00.html


forza Milan

If we can manage not to concede a goal at home, then we are pretty much on our way to the semi-finals.

I think it is the best draw that we can get.

FORZA MILAN

did u guys read on the official website...looks like byren were hoping to get us....wat r they thinking? they al said they wouldnt want chelsea and hopefully get us./..how can they say that when we are 5-2 against then in ten matches played..we will see