AC Milan vs. Barca (1/2 CL, 1st leg)

Originally Posted by ukrainian_CA

Your information is good, History Channel is a good source.
The only thing I was arguing was the distances. The short range missiles range several hundred kms, that is the size of the Black sea from US bases in Turkey to the SL residence on seaside. Same goes for Cuba, I think you may sea Florida Keys at some spectacular clear air day from Cuba, but I doubt...
You guys, didn't we wabnt to move this topic to Flamers...?

When i went to cuba last month, they told us that we could see another country on a clear day. I think it was Florida Keys, but im not sure, it could be Jamaica.

Cafu looks ok in the Chievo game, can be used in the Barca game, but I do miss Stamp who would be very effective for his headers when we have a corner kick or free kick at s flanks.

Dida was terrible, I don;t know what is wrong with him, but my feeling is he will not recover his form, no confidence at all. Imagine a mistake he makes at this point of CL could be fatal.

Rui looks still very good if we need a possession games which we should play in Now Camp.

kui...where are you ??
as you know, milan will face barca this semifinal round of CL Cup?
How bout our bet on Kaka vs Dinho last year ?
Is it still on ?

3 pts for each goal and 1 pt for each assist. what do you say, man ?

Originally Posted by hitmannq8

So you're saying, lets not maximize our efforts on champions league, but share them both on champs league and getting 2nd in serie A so we dont go through qualification stages, to play in champs league next year?

im sorry but i dont agree with you.. i'd rather win this year, and end up 3rd in champs league, even if we dont qualify which is a 0.00000000001%, i wouldnt mind really..

I can understand why you would think so. Is it not possible to maximize our efforts in the CL without compromising our standing in the SERIE A??? It came down to the wire against Lyon by shrugging off the Lecce game. You and I very well know that utilizing or compromising doesnt win Championships. It doesnt take really tactics but it does take heart and soul to win this. Remember it is called the CHAMPIONS LEAGUE. I understand and respect and acknowledge the present format of the CL. Let us not forget however the reason for the prestige of the title. There's a reason why it isnt called the "I placed in Third, Fourth, or Fifth League". That's called the UEFA Cup. By winning the CL title this way, you compromise the prestige of the title and how it was meant to be. Alright... this is a UEFA problem. That doesnt mean we lessen the the original principle or the whole reason for being there.

There were many who came up with the rationale after the Lecce lost that it was for the sake of the CL. Again look at the slippery slope effect that is going on. We gave up on the Serie A when there wasnt any reason to. A win against Lecce would have given us 6pts vs the 2pts Juve has earned for the second or third straight week. Without a doubt that would have definitely put us back in the hunt! You've talked about maximization, clearly we didnt maximize or seize this oppurtunity. Bye bye Serie A right??? So now... bye bye 2nd position??? "Here INTER have a free pass into next years CL!". No decent common sense Rossoneri fan should ever contemplate this!
Momentum is a key factor here too as the Lecce loss was of poor strategy as IMO nothing is really wrong with our teams tactics. Strategy calls for us not to cause a break or slip in our momentum. The lost against Lecce clearly showed the lost of momentum against Lyon albeit even after our win. Luckily the win vs Lyon allowed this team to regain its momentum in the Chievo win. Compromising our momentum by giving up on our Serie A placing is no way a good move before a big game against Barca. Without a doubt many here go after our coach on tactics which they dont understand when what they should be criticizing is the strategy which too is without a clue... okay!

Look at reason here hitman. Why are we "gifting" our place in Italy??? Why are we gifting Juve the Scudetto? Why are we gifting our place to INTER? For a Barca win??? You sure about that??? Losing to Inter=Barca win. Gee I must be terrible in my math. Let me look at the problem again... Losing to INTER=Barca win. You know what??? I'm glad my math is terrible cause I just dont understand this formula. Try look at the formula I was thinking about... LOSING TO INTER=LOSING TO INTER. Let me look at another one of my numbskull formulas here... LOSING Scudetto=LOSING Scudetto. Gee I must be wrong in my math. Let's go back to the "gift giving" math geniuses here to see the comparrison... LOSING Scudetto=WINNING CL. Gee Kui??? Is it true or false??? Seems false to me, but I must be wrong here!

Now I know there will be some telling me "Well we got to take that risk KUI!". Losing a Serie A game folks to get a CL win isnt risk. That is cowardice... clean, cut and dry. You want risk! Risk is winning Serie A games and winning CL games, NOT losing SERIE A games to win CL games. That is called a handout. Maldini's charity is in UNICEF not in Serie A or the CL. This seperates the BIG BOYS and GIRLS apart from the rest.

LOSING to INTER=LOSING to INTER... TRUE
LOSING SERIE A MATCHES=LOSING SERIE A PLACING... TRUE
LOSING SCUDETTO=LOSING SCUDETTO... TRUE

LOSING to INTER=WINNING Barca... FALSE
LOSING SERIE A MATCHES=WINNING CL MATCHES... FALSE
LOSING SERIE A STANDING=WINNING CL STANDING... FALSE
LOSING SERIE A=WINNING CL TITLE... FALSE

Also the "NOT" gurantees...
Winning against Inter doesnt mean a win for us vs Barca. Remember however the rule that Losing to Inter or any other Serie A opponent does not give us a win vs Barca or any other competitor in the CL.
Going for Lo Scudetto doesnt mean a trophy for us in the CL. Remeber again neither does throwing it away or any more concession in our Serie A standing.
Wisdom people.... wisdom!

Lastly and most importantly people a true CHAMPION is not in titles gained. CHAMPION's take the true meaning of the word "risk". CHAMPION's dont give up on any adversity when confronted with it. CHAMPION's dont cheat. CHAMPION's dont concede their integrity in the "Good Fight". A CHAMPION tries. Oh yes... CHAMPION's can be defeated and do lose titles. THEY NEVER LOSE THEIR HEART. This is a CHAMPION my friends... this is a CHAMPION.

Here Endeth the Lesson.

FORZA MILAN!

Originally Posted by Peachtot

kui...where are you ??
as you know, milan will face barca this semifinal round of CL Cup?
How bout our bet on Kaka vs Dinho last year ?
Is it still on ?

3 pts for each goal and 1 pt for each assist. what do you say, man ?

What do you mean where am I??? Where the heck have you been!!??? LOL! I do see you posting in the Indonesia threads but am elated to FINALLY chat wit ya.

Are you asking me to take a risk Kaka vs Dinho at this juncture??? Without a doubt of our last conversation I may have put the cart before the horse about Dinho. So the RISK is big! You know what??? Game ON Peachtot! I like your format.... 3pts/goal & 1pt/assist. Mind you, if the point spread is a mere point between us, I still take it as an impasse. Let's be clear cut and also say no less than 3pts apart as a mandate. So if Kaka or Dinho only takes it by a point or two it is inconclusive. No less than 3 pts for "without a doubt". Consider this not as a compromise but as a pursuit to the truth. Kaka over Dinho or Dinho over Kaka. You got some conflicts because it will be hard to both cheer for Milan and Dinho. I hope you are correct in only one half of this department. Anyhow.... "LET's Get ready to RUMBLE!".

hi guys, can anyone with accurate information tell me who crossed a long ball to shevchenko which led to inzaghi's second goal vs lyon?????

I think it was Kaladze.

It was KALADZE indeed

kui i didnt say we should give up on the inter game to win the barca game.. no i meant, rest some of the starts for the inter game, let them put an effort in because milan can certainly beat this inter side even if milan are not in top form.. by resting players like seedorf, pirlo, kaka, i think their performance against barca will be much better, and thus is it will help in trying to beat barca, but in no means is a win for granted..

Here's some of my math for you :P

Right now, Milan has a 60% chance of beating Inter. I say if we rest players like Kaka, Sheva, Seedorf, Pirlo, Maldini etc, the probability will then be:
P ( X = BEAT INTER ) = 0.45 < x < 0.55 depending on how many starters will rest

right now, P (X = BEAT BARCA) = 0.5 , but after resting some of our key players, their form will be better and will have more energy, and therefore giving us a P (X=BEAT BARCA) = 0.51 < x < 0.60 .. x varies depending on which player plays to their best

My formation for Inter game:
Simic/Cafu 2 half-Costacurta-Maldini-Jan
Rui-Voggel-Ambrosini-Seedorf/kaka 2 half
Gila-Inzaghi/Sheva 2 half
We can win or at least draw, let's rest Pirlo this one

My formation for the Barca game
Cafu-Nesta-Kala-Serginho
Kaka-Gastuso-Pirlo-Seedorf
Inzaghi-Sheva

Hitmanq8.....Are you a mathematician. That was great man...even though I had to read the post 3 times to understand what you were talking about. I'm not a great math person. It is a good way to think of it though. It makes sense to rest some players. Now though, with the game being pushed to friday, I don't think we need to rest that many people.

Originally Posted by hitmannq8

kui i didnt say we should give up on the inter game to win the barca game.. no i meant, rest some of the starts for the inter game, let them put an effort in because milan can certainly beat this inter side even if milan are not in top form.. by resting players like seedorf, pirlo, kaka, i think their performance against barca will be much better, and thus is it will help in trying to beat barca, but in no means is a win for granted..

Here's some of my math for you :P

Right now, Milan has a 60% chance of beating Inter. I say if we rest players like Kaka, Sheva, Seedorf, Pirlo, Maldini etc, the probability will then be:
P ( X = BEAT INTER ) = 0.45 < x < 0.55 depending on how many starters will rest

right now, P (X = BEAT BARCA) = 0.5 , but after resting some of our key players, their form will be better and will have more energy, and therefore giving us a P (X=BEAT BARCA) = 0.51 < x < 0.60 .. x varies depending on which player plays to their best

Do you use derivative (futures, options) market values to calculate the expected probabilities of the outcome of a particular game? Do you think the Black-Scholes model could give you a similar but more accurate prediction of expected return? Can you please put some dollar signs next to the derby outcomes and the CL BArca games outcomes? This way we could make a right financial decision how many people and who we should rest and for how long in the derby.



And I think instead of "Beat Barca" one must read "Beta La Barca", right?

hehe nah im just taking a bit too much maths at uni unfortunately, and im trying my best to make it as useful as possible :P

ofcourse its not accurate probabilities, but it certainly has at least some truth in it..

Originally Posted by hitmannq8

ofcourse its not accurate probabilities, but it certainly has at least some truth in it..

How much truth?

You know that in business marketing/sales we heavily apply the 80-20 rule (meaning that you should spend 80 % of you energy/effort on the best 20 % customers and 80 % of your business yield will come from this 20 % customers)

This is so true for this point of the season, 20 % of your engery for the domestic league where to be realistic we should forget about the scudetto, 2nd position is reckon the 20 % yield, take away the 20 % energy spent on the Inter game we should spend 80 % of the energy on Barca game if we win that is 80 % yield.

This is how a businessman use math.

I don't mind even if we are out of the CL zone if we win the CL. This is so desperate for this season. This is the fading side of the current team (may be among the best 3 squads in Belusconi era) if we don't win the CL this year I have a feeling that it take another 5 -10 years to build another team that is so competitive in CL.