Financial markets and trading

Hey,

I thought it would be interested to discuss some trading and financial ideas here.
I "saw" couple of you , includes Kui, discussed those over coffee and juice.

I love to use options. Never used futures or options on them yet.
I was thinking about using one future those on
www.intrade.com
I wanted to buy "Hillary will be a candidate from a democr. party in 2008", never bought it I thought I shouldve at 0.35.

that's not financial markets and trading, though; this is simply gambling... and it's a different world in the stock (or whatever vechicle to use) market...

Originally Posted by Jeff

that's not financial markets and trading, though; this is simply gambling... and it's a different world in the stock (or whatever vechicle to use) market...

That was exactly what i thought. I assessed the risk as it was too high for me to handle over 2+ years. My wife would bid on that, I felt like it was going to a casino and freeze the money over 2 years... I passed.

I short and sell puts short. Most of the time I own ( buy as a part of a plan and options grant) and then sell covered calls aganist the LRCX (lam research) position. Lam Research is due to report next week, close to all time high. I just sold some ... Will sell more if we go beyond 55


I forgot tp clarify if that wasnt obvious that I work for lrcx. Enjoying it too.

Originally Posted by Jeff

that's not financial markets and trading, though; this is simply gambling... and it's a different world in the stock (or whatever vechicle to use) market...

Well that one example he's giving is gambling. Actually the whole concept of investing is gambling, for it involves financial risk.

I havent looked at the curent asking price for the Hillary contract meesh. At the previous 0.35, I'll asssume the asking price was $3.50 per contract/share. You've got to confirm this with me Meesh. Anyway what is the asking price now?
In any case, if you decide to buy the Hillary option, be sure to cut the risk by making a hedge on another candidate be it a fellow dem or against a gop candidate who might actually win. In fact... hedge it with the plain DEM to win 2008 option. You see Hillary might not even run. If her value has gone up significantly, I believe too many are over-speculating that investment with so many uncertainties coming up in the near future.
I have other questions regarding intrade.com meesh. Can I sell my contract before the specified event(Party Convention or General Election Day) to an open buyer on imtrade if the price is right? Are we using a binary 0-100 format where the specified event results at 100 and every other circumstance ends at 0(zero)? What is the payout per contract if your future ends up being correct?
You see... I'm not too sure if your payout is fixed at a certain rate per share or if the value of the contract(s) is your payout. Seems like a sucker bet to buy $50. per one(1) future contract if the payout is only $10 per one(1)share(if the event comes i.e. Hillary winning). You would be paying $5 to win $1 if what I'm guessin at is correct. You got let me know.

Originally Posted by Kui

Well that one example he's giving is gambling. Actually the whole concept of investing is gambling, for it involves financial risk.

I havent looked at the curent asking price for the Hillary contract meesh. At the previous 0.35, I'll asssume the asking price was $3.50 per contract/share. You've got to confirm this with me Meesh. Anyway what is the asking price now?
In any case, if you decide to buy the Hillary option, be sure to cut the risk by making a hedge on another candidate be it a fellow dem or against a gop candidate who might actually win. In fact... hedge it with the plain DEM to win 2008 option. You see Hillary might not even run. If her value has gone up significantly, I believe too many are over-speculating that investment with so many uncertainties coming up in the near future.
I have other questions regarding intrade.com meesh. Can I sell my contract before the specified event(Party Convention or General Election Day) to an open buyer on imtrade if the price is right? Are we using a binary 0-100 format where the specified event results at 100 and every other circumstance ends at 0(zero)? What is the payout per contract if your future ends up being correct?
You see... I'm not too sure if your payout is fixed at a certain rate per share or if the value of the contract(s) is your payout. Seems like a sucker bet to buy $50. per one(1) future contract if the payout is only $10 per one(1)share(if the event comes i.e. Hillary winning). You would be paying $5 to win $1 if what I'm guessin at is correct. You got let me know.

I think right now that contract is at about .50 meaning 50% probability of the event.
I forgot what the numbers are, basically it is value from 0 to 1, 0 meaning it doesnt occur, 1 - otherwise. Payouts will be either 0 or 1. I am too sleepy, gotta hit the bed.
Later, guys)))

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hillary about 49% then Obama or Edwards about 20 % each.

Outsise is at cold as it gets here, we expect 25F, or -4C by the sunset. That will be a record for lat 15 years.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Hillary about 49% then Obama or Edwards about 20 % each.

Outside is as cold as it gets here, we expect 25F, or -4C by the sunrise That will be the record low for last 15 years.

Also... with your your Lam Corps shares, I hope you've been investing also with a direct competitor of them? Be sure to also come up with different startegic models other than your current method(s) to increase your "in the money" chances. I'm certain your company offered you preferred stock options as a perk. My friend has the same deal at his workplace McAfee. The reason why I advise you into "privately" investing in the competition is because any broker will tell you it is foolish to invest in your own company. Do so of course, but keep in mind not to put your eggs all in one basket. For one thing your employment with the company is already a personal investment. No sense to put your paid income back into the company. Let the consumers do that for you. In many cases where companies fold, go under, get bought out, reorganized, or failed to meet their financial target... two things commonly happen. One there are lay-offs and Two a fluctuation (decrease) in the value of company shares. It is bad enough that you lose value of your shares and THEN all of a sudden to lose your job soon thereafter. Just ask the folks at ENRON.
Now your current stratagem is wise for it is safe and conservative. Just keep in mind of the pitfalls that exist when investing in your own company.

Originally Posted by ukrainian_CA

I think right now that contract is at about .50 meaning 50% probability of the event.
I forgot what the numbers are, basically it is value from 0 to 1, 0 meaning it doesnt occur, 1 - otherwise. Payouts will be either 0 or 1. I am too sleepy, gotta hit the bed.
Later, guys)))

okay... how much per contract???

the two things that interest me the least (or scare me the most): gambling and politics.

Originally Posted by Xudong

the two things that interest me the least (or scare me the most): gambling and politics.

Exactly the reasons why I did not buy that.

Uncertainty is big issue too.

Originally Posted by Kui

Also... with your your Lam Corps shares, I hope you've been investing also with a direct competitor of them? Be sure to also come up with different startegic models other than your current method(s) to increase your "in the money" chances. I'm certain your company offered you preferred stock options as a perk. My friend has the same deal at his workplace McAfee. The reason why I advise you into "privately" investing in the competition is because any broker will tell you it is foolish to invest in your own company. Do so of course, but keep in mind not to put your eggs all in one basket. For one thing your employment with the company is already a personal investment. No sense to put your paid income back into the company. Let the consumers do that for you. In many cases where companies fold, go under, get bought out, reorganized, or failed to meet their financial target... two things commonly happen. One there are lay-offs and Two a fluctuation (decrease) in the value of company shares. It is bad enough that you lose value of your shares and THEN all of a sudden to lose your job soon thereafter. Just ask the folks at ENRON.
Now your current stratagem is wise for it is safe and conservative. Just keep in mind of the pitfalls that exist when investing in your own company.

Good thinking, Kui.

I had been in some smaller companies, start-ups, and my options eventually turned sour but .. since I bought shares of our main competitors, Soitec in France and IBIS in the US, I was much better off.... )))

With IBIS, I kept having some information about their technology, so I had been in and out of them even though IBIS had very low float and almost no options. They are three quarter dead by now.

With Lam Research, I just sold my last vesting of my options and we are not getting any more soon. We are given restricted share units now, vested in the future. So, it makes sense to sell not-covered (naked) calls when I need money for other projects in the future, if you know what I mean.

Originally Posted by Kui

okay... how much per contract???

each contract is $10, or 10 cents per point:
from 0 to 100 pts, 0 - being NO this didnt happen, 100 pts - Boolean YES.

Comissions are 4 cents per contract, quite steep, huh?

Originally Posted by Kui

Well that one example he's giving is gambling. Actually the whole concept of investing is gambling, for it involves financial risk.

I beg to differ with you here. From my own investment experience, Investment is not gambling as a result of risk; there are, I believe, successful formula in investment. The question is how you manage risk.

Unless you would like, I will not go further into this now.

Originally Posted by ukrainian_CA

That was exactly what i thought. I assessed the risk as it was too high for me to handle over 2+ years. My wife would bid on that, I felt like it was going to a casino and freeze the money over 2 years... I passed.

I short and sell puts short. Most of the time I own ( buy as a part of a plan and options grant) and then sell covered calls aganist the LRCX (lam research) position. Lam Research is due to report next week, close to all time high. I just sold some ... Will sell more if we go beyond 55


I forgot tp clarify if that wasnt obvious that I work for lrcx. Enjoying it too.

Can you briefly describe what Lam Research does as its core business?