Serie A 2007/08- Where will they finish....

Prepare yourselves for some long and boring posts.


Serie A officially starts in some....errr....~45 hours. Mercato isn't closed yet and new transfers can happen.
I'll take the risk and i'll give my predictions 8 days before mercato is closed.

My view on the best teams in Italy and my prediction of their position in the standings at the end of the season.
You can/will disagree with some of my predictions and i bet no one will like the predictions. That's why you're free to reply and of course, to give your own predictions.
But please, write at least a sentence or two to back your opinion.

We start with the best - Juventus

JUVENTUS
This time they’ll have to start as outsiders in the scudetto race which is unusual starting position for Del Piero, Buffon, Trez and the likes.
There are a lot of question marks and it’s impossible to predict what will Juve do this year…..but I’ll try to make a successful prediction 
Many new faces and a new coach usually mean a slow start of the season. They need time to get to know each other. The fact that both central defenders are new comers , just like the both central midfielders, will certainly be a problem at the beginning and exactly the beginning, the opening 15-20 rounds, is the period where I expect Juve to lose the scudetto and find themselves some 15-20 points behind the leaders.
By comparing the quality of the team with the quality of what Inter or Milan have we’ll see that the difference isn’t huge as many think but Milan players know everything about their team mates, Inter kept the team that was playing excellent football, Juve on the other hand will need minimum 4-5 months to get at least close to the perfection of the Milano teams. And even if the quality difference isn’t huge, it’s still there. Juve never really replaced Ibrahimovic (Iaquinta), Zambrotta (Chiellini), Vieira (Tiago) , Emerson (Almiron), Cannavaro (Andrade) , Thuram (Criscito), Mutu (Palladino) and without top quality in every position it’s hard to expect a scudetto win against Milan and Inter.
And lets not forget, like Deschamps said “ A homicide needs to happen for the refs to give us a penalty” . Understandably , no ref will have the guts to give a 50-50 call to Juve after Calciopoli. I don’t blame them, but it’s important for my preview and my prediction to know that Juve will be totally opposite of what they used to be – referee’s pet.

Juve will play only 1 match per week and that’s their main adut. They’ll be the most motivated side in serie A and that’s another plus. Squad depth is smthg that Juve finally won’t lack because there are many quality players who’ll look for their chance from the bench . Experienced Iaquinta, Salihamidzic, Zanetti, Zebina and exciting new talents and members of Italian u-21 team, like Nocerino, Criscito, Palladino will certainly add more competition and quality to the team.

But if the scudetto race is over for Juve before it even began, the fight for CL is wide open. Some may disagree with me but I think that with players like Buffon, Del Piero, Nedved, Trezeguet and Camoranesi Juve should be considered a favorite to win the 4th place in front of Fiorentina and Lazio. These guys are old wolves. They won so much in their lives and they are now hungry for more victories. I’m sure each one of them will give 101% and I expect them to win the so much wanted CL spot.
As one famous countryman of mine, the NBA ex-Houston Rockets and LA Lakers coach, Rudy Tomjanovich, once said when he unexpectedly won the NBA title : “Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion!"

Starting XI :
Buffon
Grygera-Andrade-Criscito-Chiellini
Camoranesi-Tiago(Zanetti)-Almiron-Nedved
Trezeguet-Del Piero


Prediction :
1st place : /
2nd place : /
3rd place : 15%
4th place : 50%
5th place : 35%

MILAN

Don’t let the -36 points from the previous season fool you.
Milan stars had no time for proper preparation after the world cup and we talked about this issue many times.
If you want to know how will Milan look this year then remember the last 3 months of last season, when Milan players finally got the proper rest and proper trainings. And have in mind Oddo and Ronaldo are here now. Even the worst pessimist must admit Milan was a different team with these two. Have in mind that players like Nesta, Gattuso, Pirlo, Kaka won’t be as tired and/or injury prone like they were last year , because this time Milan lab and the coaches had enough time and had great conditions to prepare these players for a full season played at the same level. And have in mind that they got another joker for the midfield in Emerson.
Winning the CL will give them more self confidence, lost after La Coruna and Istanbul. Team spirit is higher than anywhere else in Italy.
Stubborn players Milan has. If they decide to win scudetto and fight till the end for it, then they will win it..
Dev won’t agree with me, I know, but squad depth is still a problem, even with Emo joining Milan. Not the quantity but the quality is still a problem. Where Inter has Crespo, Suazo, Recoba and Cruz, Milan has injury prone Inzaghi and Willy (at least until January). Where Inter has Figo, Solari, Dacourt, Cesar, Jimenez Milan has ONLY Brocchi, Emerson and Gourcuff ( these three aren’t inferior to Inter’s sub midfielders. But like I said, the quantity may be a problem, not the quality. And with Ambrosini’s injuries, even the quality at the bench will be a problem) . Inter has Toldo, Milan has Kalac. Only in defense Milan subs can match Inters (Kaladze-Bonera vs Samuel-Cordoba/Burdisso). Inter has on the bench players that can come in and make the difference, players like Suazo/Adriano, Figo and Crespo. Milan doesn’t have them.

I still give them ~50% chances to win the league. Top quality in the team mustn’t be underestimated. And who knows, maybe serie A will be the main priority for them this year.

Starting XI :
Dida
Oddo-Nesta-Maldini(Kaladze)-Jankulovski
Gattuso-Pirlo-Ambrosini/Emerson
Kaka-Seedorf
Ronaldo

Prediction :
1st place : 45%
2nd place : 50 %
3rd place : 5%
4th place : /
5th place : /

INTER

We can’t underestimate them as we did in the past, now can we ? No matter the circumstances they did win close to 100 points last year and they deserved every single point.
Unlike the previous seasons when Inter’s starting XI was 50% different than the season before, this time Mancini kept the team almost intact, with few new arrivals. This is highly important because as you know “You don’t change the winning team”.
I believe they finally got the winning spirit, they posses huge talent and quality and most importantly , they have high quality on the bench to secure themselves in case of a serious injury of a starter and to rest the main players for more important matches.
That’s exactly the difference between Inter and the other serie A teams. Milan and Roma have the quality to beat every team in the league, as does Inter, and they can beat everyone if the best players can play every match at the same level. But it’s impossible to keep Kaka, Gattuso, Ronaldo play on every match and play at 100% all the time. That’s why Carlo will have to give them a rest from time to time. When they’ll be resting themselves their substitutes won’t have an easy time beating the likes of Reggina, Siena and Genoa. Or if he won’t give them the deserved rest, then even Kaka and Pirlo will play below par matches and Milan will lose points.
With Inter it’s different. Mancini can put the complete second team and still Crespo, Suazo, Toldo, Figo, Samuel, Cruz, Cordoba, Dacourt and Solari will be classes better than their opponents from Napoli or Catania, even Lazio, Palermo or Fiorentina.
In the first team Mancini has high class in Ibrahimovic and Adriano, huge quality and experience in Stankovic, Chivu, Materazzi, Vieira, Maicon, Zanetti and Cambiasso.
Mercato was good for Inter. Finally, all they did was adding squad depth instead of buying bunch of stars. Chivu, Suazo, Rivas …they will all be helpful.

Another important thing could be the referees. We all expected them to help Inter but there was no need for that last year. In case Inter don’t make a big difference in points in later stages of serie A, then I wouldn’t be surprised if they get some help from the men in black.

Materazzi got a serious injury and Inter lost an influential defence leader for 4 months. I know it’s only one player but his absence will hurt them. That’s why I’ll give them less chances to win serie A than I initially thought

Starting XI :
Julio Cesar
Maicon-Chivu-Materazzi (Samuel)-Cordoba/Burdisso
J.Zanetti-Vieira-Cambiasso
Stankovic
Ibrahimovic-Adriano(Suazo)

Prediction :
1st place : 50%
2nd place : 50%
3rd place : /
4th place : /
5th place : /

ROMA

Everybody enjoys watching Spalleti’s boys. I think that’s how football should be played – passes, openings, run-in’s.
But Roma is Roma, always inconsistent.
Take a look at their finishing position since 2001
2001 – 1st place
2002 – 2nd place
2003 – 8th place
2004 – 2nd place
2005 – 8th place
2006 – 5th place
2007 – 2nd place
Every single year Roma plays differently and I believe we’ll see a difference between last year’s and this year’s Roma again.

Last season Roma has finally shown that they can be good playing in 3 fronts. They won the 2nd place in Italy, they got to the ¼ finals of CL and they won Coppa Italia.
This time they reinforced themselves and it will certainly help to keep the consistency.
Juan, Andreolli, Cicinho and Kuffour in the defence, Barusso in midfield and 2 very important signings in a very important department for them – attackers Giuly from Barcelona and Esposito from Cagliari.
The base is kept – Captain Totti, Mancini, Perrotta, Pizzaro and Taddei can rip apart the defenses again. De Rossi will be the rock in midfield while Mexes and Juan will form the defense.
Chivu is no longer with the team and it may prove out to be a blow. Still, not underestimating Chivu’s quality, defense wasn’t Roma’s best part anyway and Chivu gone shouldn’t make their chances for good results smaller. After all, Juan is still a Brazilian NT player.
Very good and reinforced team Spalleti has. But since You never know how they’ll perform and since Totti and Mancini will hardly find the same unbelievably amazing form from last season, I’ll make a confusing prediction about their finishing position :
Starting XI :
Doni
Panucci-Mexes-Juan-Tonetto
De Rossi-Pizzaro
Giuly/Ciccinho-Perrotta-Mancini
Totti

Prediction :
1st place : 10%
2nd place : 15%
3rd place : 45%
4th place : 25%
5th place : 5 %

FIORENTINA

Very good team and very big rival to Juventus for the 4th place.
Like every other prediction about Fiorentina’s chances, my prediction also starts and ends with the doubts about post-Luca Toni Fiorentina.
They didn’t lose only a goal machine, but they lost a leader, world champion and difference maker. How efficient they will be without their main man is yet to be seen.

The team is still good, though.
Frey at the goal, captain Dainelli and Ujfaluši in defense, with a great left back in Pasqual and a very promising RB in Italian u-21, Potenza. Even the sub full backs are very good. The new acquisition Vanden Borre from Anderlecht and one of Juve’s best players and top assist man in serie B, Federico Balzaretti.
The midfield is almost intact . Last year regular Blasi went back to Juve (now Napoli) after 1 year loan but they bought Chievo’s best player Semioli. Liverani, Montolivo, Donadel and Jorgensen are again the main midfield players.
In attack Mutu will finally get the chance to be the leading attacker of his team. He had a brilliant season last year and there’s no reason not to continue the good form. But the striker will be the main problem. Luca Toni scored 50 league goals in last 2 seasons and Fiorentina didn’t replace him. Actually, they did buy another player who scored even more than Toni in his career, but how good is Christian Vieri for real ? 34 years old, missed entire season last year and was terrible in the season before with Milan.
They also bought young Lupoli and of course, they still have Pazzini who is the probable replacement of Luca Toni. Nevertheless, I don’t expect them to score so much like they did in last 2 seasons.
They also play in Europe and they won’t have 6 free days between the matches anymore.

For 2 years in a row this team was among the best 4 in Italy and they deserved their place in CL and twice in a row they weren’t allowed to play CL due Calciopoli. Much money invested in this team without money back. This year there were no resources for big buys and they had to sell their best player, Luca Toni. Who knows how big impact these things will have on their form ?

Starting XI :
Frey
Potenza (Vander Borre)-Ujfalusi-Dainelli-Pasqual
Semioli -Liverani- Montolivo-Jorgensen
Mutu-Pazzini


Prediction :
1st place : /
2nd place : /
3rd place : /
4th place : 30%
5th place : 50%
6th or under : 20%

LAZIO

I’ll be short here.
Much depends on their participation in CL. If they play CL then they can forget about Europe next year, if they don’t play CL they are still far away from 4th place.

Even last year Lazio weren’t among the best 4 teams on points, but due Fiorentina’s and Milan’s points deduction Lazio got the CL spot.
What an irony !!! Lazio were among the sentenced teams in Calciopoli and yet Calciopoli did more good than bad to them 
Last year Dellio Rossi made a small miracle with the average team he had. They played with heart, they fought for every ball and they got what they wanted.
This year’s team is even weaker than the team from last year. No Peruzzi and no Massimo Oddo in the team anymore. They still don’t have a replacement for Peruzzi (+40 yo Belardi is their main GK for now) and Scaloni to replace Oddo, the rest are the same.
Average players and apart from Pandev and Rocchi they don’t have players that are able to make a difference. Mauri, Mudingayu, Mutarelli and Behrami are big fighters but nothing more than that.

I don’t expect them to be among the best 4 no matter if they play CL or not. But if they play CL even top 8 will be a success.

Starting XI :
Carrizo
Scaloni-Siviglia-Cribari- Zauri
Behrami –Mutarelli (Ledesma) Mudingayi-Mauri
Pandev-Rocchi

Prediction :

1st place : /
2nd place : /
3rd place : /
4th place : /
5th place : 10%
6th or under : 90%

PALERMO

This is a hard one. Crazy team with even crazier owner. New coach, some new faces, without some old well known faces but still a very good team. Almost impossible to predict where will they end this season.

Palermo bought some very good and talented players this year : Miccoli who even though inconsistent, can be real gold for them, Bosko Jankovic from Mallorca who is, trust me, a great talent, leader of the Serbian u21 that made it to Euro final this summer, plus he comes after a great La Liga season with Mallorca where he scored 9 goals and another good addition is Migliaccio from Atalanta.
But 3 players who were really important in last year(s) left the team : their midfield soul Corini, attacker Caracciolo and the other attacker Di Michele.

Still, only Corini may be a loss. In attack their star from last autumn is back- striker Amauri and they also have one of the best young players in the world Cavani and they’ve added ex-Juve man Miccoli to help Amauri in attack.
In defense Barzagli and Zaccardo renewed their contracts and in midfield they somehow managed to keep Bresciano.It’s a good team with good coach, Stefano Colantuono, who did very good with Atalanta. I don’t expect them to fight for CL but they are hot candidates for UEFA Cup spot and they are able to make the life harder for some of the giants.

Starting XI :
Fontana
Zaccardo-Cassani-Barzagli-Pisano
Brienza (Jankovic)-Simplicio-Guana- Bresciano
Miccoli (Cavani)- Amauri

Prediction :
1st place : /
2nd place : /
3rd place : /
4th place : /
5th place : 30%
6th or under : 70%

---------------------------------

Another team that I expect to do well is Sampdoria. But they started the season very early, in July, they play in Europe and I don’t think they will have the strength to do anything more than get an UEFA Cup spot.


The End !

Originally Posted by Tony29.

Dev won’t agree with me, I know

You're right But on the whole, I think those are excellent posts

Originally Posted by ACMILAN1983

You're right But on the whole, I think those are excellent posts

Thanx

But the posts are full with mistakes
I wrote them some time ago and i only updated them recently but i missed few things.
Carrizo isn't in Lazio anymore so he shouldn't be in Lazio's starting XI , while i totally messed everything up with QUALITY and QUANTITY in the post about Milan

At the end i'll just write how do i think the final standings will look like :

1. Inter
2. Milan
3. Roma
4. Juve
5. Fiorentina
6. Palermo
7. Lazio or Sampdoria
....
....
....

Although you can change the places of Inter and Milan and of Juve and Fiorentina and it will still be realistic.

don't have the time to read them now but I am sure the posts by Tony just plain SUUUCK ... kidding of course

I have a feeling that Inter will have a below average or should I say "normal" season this year as they lack the mentality of winners and to me Inter and Mancini are like little kids who's shoulders are too weak to carry their own glory ... as they say - staying at the top is more difficult than getting there

Add to that Materazzi's injury and Vieira's and Cambiasso's fragile physique - don;t see these two featuring in many games this year, let alone together - and Inter's failure to strengthen the mid in case of Cambi and Vieira getting injured, and I preddict a much more difficult year for them than many expect.
Also, they will try to prove themselves in the CL this year and that competition will be at their focus, not serie A - needless to say, I don't see them doing much there either.

In fact, I think it would be Roma and Milan who'd be the top title contenders for the title - Roma have expanded their bench with some very good signings and that's what they needed and lacked last year and Milan have improved their midfield, hopefully another forward will arrive too, while this year the team will have a normal preparation and will not suffer as many injuries as they did last year (mostly felt in defense).

I also expect Juve to give the top 3 a run for their money and think they will surprise everyone - one plus for Juve is no CL to play for - and I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 3rd, ahead of Inter, and maybe even higher than that .
One other thing - Juve will be very determined to come back and sort of avenge their demotion as I am sure the star players feel hard-done by serie A official and the whole scandal last summer, so I expect this to unite the players and be a very strong factor in their performances, an extra driving force behind the whole team - very much like Milan in the second half of last season, which finished with us winning the CL.

P.S. Tony, let me know if you wanna make changes to the above posts

Originally Posted by Tony29.

Thanx

But the posts are full with mistakes
I wrote them some time ago and i only updated them recently but i missed few things.
Carrizo isn't in Lazio anymore so he shouldn't be in Lazio's starting XI , while i totally messed everything up with QUALITY and QUANTITY in the post about Milan

At the end i'll just write how do i think the final standings will look like :

1. Inter
2. Milan
3. Roma
4. Juve
5. Fiorentina
6. Palermo
7. Lazio or Sampdoria
....
....
....

Although you can change the places of Inter and Milan and of Juve and Fiorentina and it will still be realistic.

I understood what you meant, so it's fine, but as Zlat says, let us know if you want changes.

What an incredible underestimation of Inter !!!!!
But i liked it Zlat
Nah, they won't do as bad as you think. The pressure they carry on their shoulders may be decisive in scudetto race and they may easily lose the scudetto to Milan, but they will get a direct CL spot, i'm sure. This time not only they have top quality but they have born winners in their squad, anlike in the seasons before Calciopoli.

Don't make changes to my posts. Serie A will start in two days and no one (including myself) will give a damn anymore about pre-season predictions.

Originally Posted by Tony29.

What an incredible underestimation of Inter !!!!!
But i liked it Zlat
Nah, they won't do as bad as you think. The pressure they carry on their shoulders may be decisive in scudetto race and they may easily lose the scudetto to Milan, but they will get a direct CL spot, i'm sure. This time not only they have top quality but they have born winners in their squad, anlike in the seasons before Calciopoli.

Don't make changes to my posts. Serie A will start in two days and no one (including myself) will give a damn anymore about pre-season predictions.

maybe, but only two such winners came from Juve - Vieira and Ibra. The first I expect to be injured quite often, same with Cambiasso, while the latter I expect to have a below par season.
a big minus for them would be Materazzi's injury as he was sort of an inspiration for them, especially in defense.
The majority of the other players were with them before Claciopolli.

As for last season, I think where we differ is in our opinion as to why Inter won serie A so comfortably - you think it was becasue they were super-strong, with winning mentality, while I think it was because the low level of the league as a whole, Roma's lack of depth in quality, Milan's numerous problems, and Juve's absence made them look much stronger then they really were/are.

That's why I am making this prediction .

Originally Posted by zlatanov

maybe, but only two such winners came from Juve - Vieira and Ibra. The first I expect to be injured quite often, same with Cambiasso, while the latter I expect to have a below par season.
a big minus for them would be Materazzi's injury as he was sort of an inspiration for them, especially in defense.
The majority of the other players were with them before Claciopolli.

As for last season, I think where we differ is in our opinion as to why Inter won serie A so comfortably - you think it was becasue they were super-strong, with winning mentality, while I think it was because the low level of the league as a whole, Roma's lack of depth in quality, Milan's numerous problems, and Juve's absence made them look much stronger then they really were/are.

That's why I am making this prediction .

Hmmmm, from your mouth to God's ears but i'm afraid it won't happen.

I disagree that they're under big pressure now. The pressure on them was in last 10 years, not now. Or it's not as big now.
Every year they started with inferiority complex with huge task in front of them to finally win the bloody league. They weren't strong psychologically and they failed. This time they will be more relaxed, imo. Even if they fail to win the league it won't be a tragedy anymore.

Winners : I wasn't thinking about the Juve duo only. Now all of them from last year are winners and have experienced the taste of the victory. They will have more self-confidence.

Materazzi is indeed a big blow but i don't know about Vieira and Cambiasso. They can spend a lot of time out of the field, i know, but if we look at it that way, we can say the same for Ronaldo, Inzaghi, Nesta, Ambrosini and Maldini. Take away Nesta and Ronaldo (+Maldini who is already injured) and Milan also has a problem.

Edit : As for the last year ... i agree that the problems the other big clubs had made it easier for Inter. But it's a fact that they've beaten every single mid and low table team. And we can't take that away from them. You know that serie A is won against this kind of opposition, not in direct duels vs your rivals.

1st: Milan
2nd: Inter
3rd: Roma
4th: Juve
5th: Fiorentina
6th: Palermo
7th: Sampdoria
8th: Lazio
9th: Napoli
10th: Udinese

Will be very close between the top 3. It's all set to be the best Serie A in years.